Source: International Civil Society Centre
In a rapidly changing civil society landscape, this report presents future scenarios for localisation and the trends shaping them. By exploring how different pathways could unfold, it supports more intentional action and strengthens futures thinking and peer learning across the sector.
Report at a glance
Civil society stands at a crossroads. Traditional, donor-driven models of international cooperation are under unprecedented pressure, while demands for localisation*, power shift and wider systemic transformation are growing louder. This report examines the potential futures of civil society through a strategic foresight-driven approach, combining horizon mapping, scenario analysis, community and stakeholder engagement, and strategic stress testing. The aim is not to predict a single trajectory but to illuminate plausible pathways, identify uncertainties, and equip international civil society organisations (ICSOs), local actors, and donors with tools for action for the next twenty years. Scenario development is not about predicting the future but about preparing organisations for uncertainty.
By exploring contrasting but plausible futures, civil society actors can stress-test strategies, anticipate risks, and identify opportunities that might otherwise be overlooked. For international and local CSOs, but also for stakeholders such as donors, governments, and multilateral institutions, scenarios provide a structured way to reflect on their roles and choices, ensuring they remain proactive rather than reactive in a rapidly changing landscape.
We produced these four scenarios through mapping trends and signals, taking a participatory approach including insights from international and local civil society organisations, as well as analysing global trends and uncertainties.
These scenarios are not predictions but tools for exploration. By mapping them, we can better understand the range of possibilities ahead and the strategic implications for different actors navigating this uncertain landscape.
*The Centre is dedicated to helping organisations shift the power to local organisations, promote locally led development, as well as supporting the efforts of (I)CSOs which are committed to localising their operations. We acknowledge that “localisation” and “locally led development” are intertwined, but not interchangeable terms, and both terms are used across this report with the purpose of reflecting the breadth of the Centre’s work.
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